Second-Half Breakouts and Busts: Kade Anderson headlines players to buy
The second half of the MLB season is upon us, and with it comes the opportunity to target breakout players and trade away busts for the stretch run. Here's a breakdown of some key players to watch and avoid.
Breakouts
Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves
Despite recent injuries, Acuna remains a strong contender for a breakout performance. While his average exit velocity and overall contact quality have been down this season, his .378 expected wOBA suggests he's still a threat. Acuna's history of leg injuries raises concerns about his running ability, but his hitting prowess remains intact. With his health, I expect a significant second-half surge.
Kade Anderson, SP, Mariners
Anderson's dominance in his first pro season is remarkable. Jumping from the SEC to Double-A, he boasts a 1.36 ERA in 72.2 innings with a 41.4% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate. His K-BB rate is the highest among minor league pitchers with 70+ innings, indicating exceptional control. While his future rotation spot is uncertain, Anderson's talent is undeniable, and I predict his success will continue.
Bryan Woo, SP, Mariners
Woo's performance this season has been frustrating, with a 4.23 ERA. However, his underlying skills remain strong. His groundball rate and strikeout rate are similar to last season, and his xERA suggests he's been unlucky. With an ERA below 3.00 more likely than above 4.00, I believe Woo will turn things around and become a reliable starter.
Luke Weaver, RP, Mets
Weaver's potential as a closer is evident, despite the Mets' decision to keep Devin Williams. His 1.85 ERA and under contract status make him an attractive trade target. While his role as a closer is not guaranteed, Weaver's talent and performance suggest he could become an elite closer, making him a valuable setup man.
Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Diamondbacks
Waldschmidt's power and speed make him a fantasy asset. With a near-.900 OPS in the minors and a 22% strikeout rate in Triple-A, he has the potential to be a valuable hitter. His approach and skill set indicate a promising future, and I believe he can improve his strikeout rate, making him a strong fantasy option.
Busts
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Diamondbacks
Rodriguez's performance is a clear example of a bust. With a high ERA and low strikeout rate, he has struggled to limit hard contact. His .384 expected wOBA on contact is concerning, and I doubt he can sustain his current ERA. Rodriguez's lack of success makes him a risky investment, and I advise avoiding him.
Max Meyer, SP, Marlins
Meyer's success is partly due to his breaking balls, but his xERA suggests he's been lucky. With a flyball-prone approach, he's on the verge of surpassing his career high in innings. I predict regression, making him a poor choice for the second half.
Brandon Marsh, OF, Phillies
Marsh's performance has been inconsistent, with a high strikeout rate and a drop in OBP vs. lefties. His counting stats are impressive, but his underlying power metrics suggest regression. The Phillies' decision to play him less against lefties could impact his value, making him a bust candidate.
Otto Lopez, SS, Marlins
Lopez's breakout is not supported by his underlying stats. His expected batting average and wOBA are lower than his actual performance, indicating potential regression. I believe he's valued too highly, and a trade now could be beneficial.
Mickey Moniak, OF, Rockies
Moniak's success at Coors Field is impressive, but his performance away from home is concerning. With a sub-.600 OPS against lefties, his value is limited. The Rockies' need to clear their outfield glut makes him a trade candidate, but his overall value is questionable.
